UK Archives

UK Fans: Which one is it?

Thursday, December 13th, 2007 at 5:28 am  
Leave your comment

I’m jumping out of the business and marketing bag for just a moment to talk about sports and something that has been frosting my ass for awhile. Since I live in Kentucky, I hear this garbage all the time about Tubby Smith and wanted to share some facts to question both sides of UK fans’ arguments about their former coach. Here’s an e-mail I sent to one of the local radio sports talk show hosts (Lachlan McLean) in hopes that he shares this on the air.
————————————-

First off, let me state for the record that I’m a HUGE Louisville fan and loathe the Cayuts. With that said, I’m worn out by the UK contingent whining about Tubby Smith not being able to recruit and/or coach. Which one is it? Far be it from me to defend a former UK guy, but here are a couple of arguments to consider.

If somebody says he can’t recruit, how did he produce 9 NBA players in 10 years? We’re talking NBA—not NBDL, overseas, or any minor league pro basketball. In six plus years of Rick being here at UofL, we have ONE player in the NBA (Francisco Garcia). Here’s Tubby’s list of NBA players for good measure so no one can question the number:

  1. Tayshawn Prince
  2. Keith Bogans
  3. Gerald Fitch
  4. Erik Daniels
  5. Chuck Hayes
  6. Kelenna Azubuike
  7. Rajon Rondo
  8. Randolph Morris
  9. Jamaal Magloire

Of that bunch, the most heralded players were Rondo and Morris—the rest were not super sought after. So that begs the question—is it recruiting or coaching? One could easily argue, with 9 NBA players in 10 years, it was not recruiting.

If it’s coaching, how did Tubby guide them to 1 NCAA title, 3 Elite 8 and 2 Sweet 16 appearances? He never lost a first round game at UK. In the span Tubby was coach at UK, he won 76.0% of his games. The all-time percentage for UK Basketball is (drum-roll please) . . . 76.3%! Compare his winning percentage at UK to that of (mouse face) Mike Kryzewski’s at Duke (77.8%), and he’s not that far off (1.8%). If Kryzewski is considered one of the best college coaches, where does that leave Tubby? What that means, with all things being equal, Kryzewski would win a whopping one extra game in every 55 played based on those numbers. You don’t have to be a genius to realize that’s not very significant.

Let’s compare Tubby’s winning percentage to other coaches in UK’s history:

  • Rupp won 82.2% of his games at UK (which equates to winning 1 more game in every 16 than Tubby)
  • Joe B Hall–74.8%
  • Eddie Sutton—69.2%
  • Rick Pitino—81.9% (which equates to winning 1 more game in every 17)

So looking objectively at UK basketball historically illustrates the point that Tubby’s performance was very much in line with the tradition at UK. This notion that Tubby “underperformed” emphasizes how unrealistic UK fans truly are. When placing these facts into their proper context (remember: it’s a UofL fan analyzing them objectively), it makes you wonder what is in UK fans’ cool-aid to make them believe they deserve so much more. Look at the numbers before making the argument that Tubby can’t recruit or coach, and it’s pretty clear neither of those are valid points.

The reason for sending this e-mail and asking these questions is I am sick and tired of hearing UK fans whine, belly-ache, and complain about how terrible things were under Tubby. Ok, the style wasn’t the most enjoyable, but who cares? You won games at an extremely similar clip to what you have all-time so quit whining already!

It’s not my nature to contribute to anything UK related, but the facts tell a far different story than UK fans would like everyone to believe, and it’s time for them to own up to those facts.

Off Topic: Why I Think Billy Donovan is Staying Put

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007 at 5:52 am  
Leave your comment

Okay, the NCAA Final is over, and Florida has repeated as Champions. Now everyone in the Bluegrass State is all fired up thinking Billy Donovan will become the head coach of the Cayuts (purposely spelled like that to inject the twang). First off, it should be noted that I’m a huge Louisville fan and not the least bit a UK fan, but there is always an interest in what the rival is up to as that’s a “competitive intelligence” issue. Much like a good business, we sports fans keep up with the landscape.

Anyway, I just don’t see what Billy Donovan would have to gain by switching jobs after winning back-to-back titles at a school he’s put on the map basketball wise. Yes, it’s a football first school, and it will be for quite some time, but there are many benefits to being a coach at a school where you can set the standard versus the standard already being set for you to meet it. The bar at Kentucky is unrealistically high, and ANY coach walking into that pressure pit is going to have a tough time meeting those lofty expectations. The more they pay someone, which is apparently the biggest lure, the quicker they are going to be expected to produce. Nobody can convince me that the Wildcat faithful will be okay “mailing it in” next year even if they do land their top choice as a coach.

The Kentucky cupboard isn’t stocked next year, and the job simply isn’t as good as it used to be. They just ran off a guy that won almost 80% of his games including a championship. Whomever they get is going to have to thump the recruiting trail immediately to salvage even a mediocre class next year. Sure, Donovan would have some loyal recruits follow him IF he takes the job, but why uproot your family for a job that you’ll never totally complete? If he wins one title, they’ll want two. If he wins two, they’ll want three. It’ll never end, and there is zero tolerance for a title one year and a slip back to the Sweet 16 the next year. It’s Final Four or bust every single season, and that’s damn near impossible to achieve. He just did it at Florida, and there are no guarantees it can be done again even with facilities and tons of money flowing in.

This doesn’t even take into account that his four key players on his current team COULD return for their Senior seasons. At least one or two could, and that could make his team in Florida next year, with the addition of one or two key recruits, better than anything he’ll have at UK for three or four years. Why rebuild when you’ve already built something special? Why coach in someone’s shadow? Why try to climb the hill when you’re already at the top of the thing?

I think back to when John Wooden retired from UCLA, and Denny Crum was rumored to be the no-brainer replacement much like Donovan is now for Kentucky. Crum has publicly stated that he had a tough time saying no, but he believes it was the right decision and everything worked out nicely in the end. He was building a great program that had his finger prints all over it, and he’s now a legend in Louisville. Donovan is in a very similar situation–a former assistant coach which has done great things at a perceived lesser basketball school and is going to be offered a lot of money to return and restore the program to glory. The problem for Crum back then and Donovan today is the high standard was already set long before the offer. Taking over the program would be a losing proposition in spite of the monetary compensation. One other caveat–Crum graduated from UCLA; Donovan from Providence so his ties to UK aren’t as strong as Crum’s were to UCLA. It’s harder to turn down the alma mater more often than not, but Crum did it, and now he has his name on the court here. Donovan could have his name on the court, arena, streets leading into the arena, buildings on campus, etc. Whatever he wants his legacy to be could be achieved much easier at Florida than UK. He’s already 75% there today! His checking account might be fatter down the road at UK, but could he truly be happy living in the UK fishbowl? In the end, that’s the $4M question.

My bet is he stays put in Florida and further builds his coaching legacy to Hall of Fame status.